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| #1114546 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 02.Nov.2022) TCDAT1 Hurricane Martin Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162022 300 AM GMT Thu Nov 03 2022 Martin remains in impressive high-latitude late-season hurricane. Recent infrared satellite imagery shows deep convection wrapping around a ragged eye. The hurricane`s cloud shield has begun expanding over the northern and northwestern portions of the storm suggesting that the system`s extratropical transition is beginning. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 65 to 77 kt, and the initial wind speed will remain on the higher end of those estimates at 75 kt. The global model guidance indicates that Martin will strengthen tonight and early Thursday as it transforms into an extratropical cyclone. That transition is expected to be complete by about 1800 UTC on Thursday. The guidance continues to depict a very strong sting-jet-like feature around the southern and southwestern portions of the storm, and the NHC forecast therefore calls for some strengthening during the next 12 hours or so. Martin`s wind field is also forecast to rapidly expand in size during the next day or so, and this is reflected in the wind radii forecast. The baroclinic forcing should begin to decrease by late tomorrow, with gradual weakening occurring after that time, however Martin is forecast to remain a very large and powerful cyclone over the North Atlantic for the next several days. Martin continues to accelerate, and it is now moving northeastward at about 34 kt. A faster north-northeastward motion is expected overnight, followed by northward turn on Thursday as Martin moves around the eastern side of a strong deep-layer trough. The trough is forecast to capture Martin by 36 hours, and the merged system is expected to slow down considerably, and then turn eastward in the mid-latitude flow. The updated track forecast is slightly faster during the first 24 hours, but little change was required thereafter. The forecast is a blend of mostly the GFS and ECMWF global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 39.4N 44.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 43.8N 40.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 51.9N 36.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 04/1200Z 56.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 05/0000Z 56.0N 35.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 05/1200Z 55.0N 29.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 06/0000Z 55.0N 21.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 07/0000Z 58.0N 9.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
