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| #1114641 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 03.Nov.2022) TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022 400 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022 Deep convection associated with Lisa has been diminishing on infrared satellite images, although the system still has nearly a closed ring of precipitation on the Sabancuy, Mexico, radar. Assuming that at least some weakening has occurred during the day, the current intensity estimate is set at 25 kt, which is above the few available surface observations. Center position estimates from visible satellite images and radar indicate that Lisa continues to move generally westward, or at about 280/10 kt. During the next day or two, the cyclone should gradually turn toward the northwest and north while moving along the southwestern and western side of a mid-level high pressure area. Around 48 hours and beyond, the shallow vortex is likely to move slowly and erratically with the near-surface environmental flow. The official track forecast remains close to the dynamical model consensus. Strong south-southwesterly upper-level winds are expected to prevail across most of the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Therefore, even though the center of Lisa is forecast to soon move over the waters of the Bay of Campeche, high vertical shear is likely to prevent re-strengthening of the system. The consensus of the numerical intensity guidance calls for weakening through 48 hours, and the official forecast shows Lisa becoming a remnant low in a couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Isolated flash flooding is possible across portions of southeastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.1N 92.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 04/0600Z 18.5N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 04/1800Z 19.4N 95.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.3N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 20.7N 95.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z 20.4N 95.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 20.0N 95.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
