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| #11150 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 02.Oct.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 55 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004 THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE EAST AND MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED. ALSO WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS LEFT HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY. A 21Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS MAX WINDS NEAR 50 KT AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT OR LESS. SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 50 KT. THE CENTER IS OVER THE 20 DEG SST ISOTHERM OR LESS AND THE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS A WHOPPING 40 KT. SO LISA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/23. LISA IS BEING SWEPT ALONG IN THE WESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS ON THE STORMS THERMAL STRUCTURE. BOB HARTS FSU CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS USING THE GFS AND CANADIAN 12Z MODEL RUNS ANALYSES A COLD CORE STRUCTURE...WHILE THE UKMET IS WARM CORE AND THE NOGAPS IS NEUTRAL. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE TRANSITION TO A COLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE WILL BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IF IT IS NOT ALREADY COMPLETED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0300Z 43.9N 31.6W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 03/1200Z 44.9N 25.9W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 04/0000Z 46.0N 17.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 04/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL |
