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| #1115334 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 PM 08.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 400 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022 Satellite imagery indicates that the central convection associated with Nicole has become better organized this afternoon, with a curved convective band wrapped about three-quarters of the way around the center. An earlier scatterometer overpass showed winds near 45 kt about 60 n mi northwest of the center, and a just received microwave overpass shows an additional increase in organization. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. Water vapor and air mass imagery shows a large area of mid- to upper-level dry air over the southern semicircle of the circulation, and some of this may be entraining into the core at this time. Nicole is continuing its anticipated turn with the initial motion now 260/9. A strong deep-layer ridge over the eastern United States should steer the storm west-southwestward during the next 24-30 h, with this motion bringing the center near or over the Northwestern Bahamas. After that time, the ridge is forecast to shift eastward allowing Nicole to turn westward to west-northwestward as it approaches the east coast of Florida. There is some spread in the guidance as to how much of a turn will occur, with the ECMWF and GFS showing a more westward motion, while the HWRF and HMON show a more northwestward motion. This part of the forecast track is along the south edge of the guidance and agreement with the ECMWF and UKMET. After landfall in Florida, Nicole should turn generally northwestward, with the center forecast to pass near or over the west coast of Florida north of Tampa by about 48 h. This should be followed by a turn toward the north and northeast through the eastern United States as the cyclone recurves on the east side of a large baroclinic trough moving through the central United States. This part of the forecast track is closer to the various consensus models, and overall the new forecast track is a little south of the previous track through 60 h and a little west of the previous track after that time. Nicole will be traversing relatively warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius and upper-level conditions, while not ideal due to a nearby upper-level trough, are expected to allow some strengthening before the cyclone reaches Florida. The new intensity forecast follows the previous forecast and calls for Nicole to become a hurricane when it is near the northwest Bahamas and remain a hurricane when it reaches Florida. This part of the intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida and while it accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States. Extratropical transition is expected to start between 60-72 h and be complete by 96 h, with the storm likely to maintain gale-force winds after transition. The cyclone is expected to dissipate as it merges with another mid-latitude low pressure area by 120 h. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas in Florida and Georgia beginning early Wednesday. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials. 4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States. 5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall Wednesday and Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with possible renewed river rises on the St. Johns River. On Friday and Saturday, flash, urban and small stream flooding will be possible in the Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 27.5N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 27.0N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 27.2N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 28.6N 82.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0600Z 31.2N 83.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/1800Z 34.7N 81.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 12/1800Z 45.0N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
