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| #1115405 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:03 AM 09.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 400 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 Nicole`s satellite presentation has not changed since last evening. The associated convection is fairly fragmented, and cloud-top temperatures are not particularly cold compared to a typical tropical cyclone (they`re only as cold as -50 degrees Celsius near the center). The initial intensity remains 60 kt based on data from last evening`s reconnaissance mission. Aircraft fixes and radar data from the Bahamas indicate that Nicole has continued to move west-southwestward (250/11 kt), even a little south of the previous NHC track prediction. However, track model guidance indicates that Nicole should turn westward soon, and its center is forecast to move across the Abacos and Grand Bahama Island later today and approach the southeast or east-central coast of Florida tonight. After 24 hours, high pressure over the southeastern U.S. is expected to slide eastward over the Atlantic, and that will cause Nicole to recurve around its western flank, moving across northern Florida or the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and then across the southeastern U.S. Nicole is then expected to accelerate northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic states in 60-72 hours ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough and cold front. Due to Nicole`s recent short-term motion, the NHC official forecast has been nudged southward and westward during the first 48 hours and lies fairly close to the ECMWF and TVCA multi-model consensus. It`s worth noting that a few models, including the GFS, HWRF, and HCCA, are a little west of the official forecast over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Panhandle. Nicole will continue to move over warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius today, although the cyclone will likely also be contending with some shear and a dry and not particularly unstable environment. Therefore, only slight additional strengthening is anticipated, and Nicole could still become a hurricane later today while it moves across the northwestern Bahamas and reaches the east coast of Florida. Weakening is expected once the center moves over Florida, and Nicole is forecast to weaken below tropical storm strength by 60 hours once it`s over Georgia or South Carolina. Nicole is expected to merge with a cold front and become extratropical over the Mid-Atlantic by day 3, although most global models indicate that feature will dissipate soon thereafter, with a secondary extratropical low developing farther north over New England or eastern Canada. Scatterometer data from last evening indicated that Nicole`s tropical-storm-force wind field continues to expand on its northern side, and that has been reflected in the new forecast. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions have begun along the east coast of Florida in the warning areas and will spread northward to Georgia and South Carolina later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along the west coast of Florida within the warning area this evening or tonight. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida and portions of coastal Georgia where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials. 4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is expected to be a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards are likely to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States. 5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be likely across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with possible renewed river rises on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west-central Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 26.6N 75.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 26.6N 77.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 27.1N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 10/1800Z 28.5N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 11/0600Z 30.7N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/1800Z 34.1N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/0600Z 38.7N 78.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
