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| #1115451 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 AM 09.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 Convection has increased in both coverage and organization near the center of Nicole, with a curved band or partial eyewall now present near the center. However, this has not yet resulted in any intensification, with reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicating the maximum winds are near 60 kt and the central pressure near 986 mb. The aircraft and satellite data, along with radar data from the Bahamas show that Nicole is now moving westward with an initial motion of 265/10. This motion should bring the center across the Abacos and Grand Bahama in the northwestern Bahamas during the next several hours. Subsequently, a westward to west-northwestward motion should bring the center to the southeast or east-central coast of Florida tonight. After landfall in Florida, a low- to mid-level ridge over the southeastern U.S. is expected to slide eastward over the Atlantic, with Nicole turning northwestward and northward across northern Florida or the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, and then across the southeastern U.S. Finally, a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the west should cause Nicole to accelerate northeastward toward the Mid-Atlantic states. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and generally follows the more southerly and westerly GFS/ECMWF solutions. While Nicole is over warm sea surface temperatures, a combination of shear of dry air entrainment is likely to allow only gradual intensification. However, that gradual intensification should allow Nicole to become a hurricane later today while crossing the northwestern Bahamas. Weakening is expected once the center moves over Florida, and even if the center emerges for a time over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico re-intensification is not expected. The new intensity forecast calls for Nicole to weaken to a depression over land by 48 h, and then become extratropical by 60 h as it merges with a frontal system. The global models are in good agreement that Nicole should dissipate inside the frontal system by 72 h as another low forms to the north. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions have begun along the east coast of Florida in the warning areas and will spread northward to Georgia and South Carolina later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along the west coast of Florida within the warning area this evening or tonight. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials. 4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States. 5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with river rises on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west central Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 26.5N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 26.7N 78.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 27.6N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 29.5N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 11/1200Z 32.4N 83.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 12/0000Z 36.8N 79.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
