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| #1115501 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 PM 09.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 400 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 The satellite presentation of Nicole has not changed much since late this morning. Curved bands of convection wrap around much of the circulation and there has been a ragged eyewall in radar data from both the Bahamas and Miami. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 985 mb and peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 72 kt during its final pass through the center and northwestern portion of the storm as Nicole made landfall on Great Abaco Island in the northwestern Bahamas just prior to 1700 UTC. Those aircraft data still supported an intensity of 60 kt, and that remains the initial intensity for this advisory. Recent center fixes show that Nicole is moving westward or 270 degrees at 11 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the north of the cyclone is expected to shift eastward causing Nicole to turn west-northwestward to northwestward tonight. This motion should bring the center onshore the coast of southeastern or east-central Florida overnight, and across the Florida peninsula Thursday morning. As Nicole passes over north Florida late Thursday, a mid-latitude trough moving into the central United States is expected to turn the cyclone or its remnants northward and then northeastward across inland portions of Georgia and the Carolinas. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement during the first 12 to 24 hours, with some increase in spread during the recurvature portion of the forecast. The updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through 24 hours, but is slightly west thereafter to be close to the latest consensus aids. Nicole still has about 12 hours in which to strengthen. Given the slightly improved inner core structure and the warm waters of the Gulf Stream that Nicole will be traversing, the forecast still calls for the cyclone to reach hurricane status before reaching the east coast of Florida. After landfall, weakening should occur as the center cross the Florida peninsula. Even if the center briefly emerges over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico, re-intensification is not expected. Nicole is forecast to weaken further over the southeastern United Sates, and then dissipate along a frontal zone moving into the eastern United States by 60 hours. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge are expected to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas through this evening, where a Hurricane Warning remains in effect. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the coast of southeast and east-central Florida beginning this evening or tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas into Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin along the west coast of Florida within the warning area this evening or tonight. 3. A dangerous storm surge is expected along much of the east coast of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials. 4. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States. 5. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today into Thursday across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river rises on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through west central Pennsylvania into western New York by Friday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 26.5N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 27.3N 80.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 28.8N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 31.0N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/1800Z 34.6N 82.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
