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| #1115593 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:09 AM 10.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 400 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 Nicole`s center made landfall around 3 AM EST (0800 UTC) in the vicinity of Vero Beach, Florida. Now that the center is inland over Florida, it is assumed that weakening has begun, and Nicole is being designated as a tropical storm with maximum winds of 60 kt. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 295/12 kt. Mid-level high pressure is sliding eastward off the North Carolina/Virginia coast, with a large deep-layer trough moving eastward from the Rocky Mountains. This pattern is expected to cause Nicole to turn northwestward later today and then accelerate toward the north-northeast over the southeastern U.S. on Friday. There has been no appreciable change in the track guidance on this cycle, and the new NHC track forecast essentially lies on top of the previous prediction. Weakening is expected to continue while Nicole`s center moves across central Florida during the morning hours. Although the center may emerge over the extreme northeastern Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon, it won`t be over water long enough to aid in any re-intensification. Continued weakening is forecast tonight and on Friday while Nicole moves across the southeastern United States. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the solutions from Decay-SHIPS, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble. Nicole is forecast to merge with another extratropical system over the Mid-Atlantic states by 48 hours. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina within the warning areas today. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the west coast of Florida to the coast of the Florida Panhandle through tonight. 2. A dangerous storm surge is expected along portions of the east-central and northeastern coast of Florida, portions of coastal Georgia, and the Florida Big Bend along the Gulf coast. The storm surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves along the Atlantic coast. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will continue to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States. 4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall today across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania, into western New York by Friday night into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 27.8N 80.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1800Z 28.9N 82.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER GULF OF MEXICO 24H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/1800Z 34.7N 82.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
