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| #1115640 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:57 AM 10.Nov.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 ...NICOLE MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...STRONG WINDS, DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER A LARGE AREA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 82.2W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF TAMPA FLORIDA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued along the Florida west coast south of Englewood, and along the Florida east coast south of Sebastian Inlet. The Tropical Storm Warning has also been discontinued for Lake Okeechobee. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued for the Florida east coast south of Sebastian Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet Florida to South Santee River South Carolina * Englewood to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Mouth of the St. Johns River to Georgetown Florida * Anclote River Florida to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida * Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests in the remainder of Florida and along the southeastern coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Nicole. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 82.2 West. Nicole is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the north tonight. Nicole is expected to accelerate north-northeastward on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Nicole will continue to move across the west central Florida peninsula this morning and emerge over the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. The center should then move across the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight, and then move through the southeastern United States on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected this morning while the center is over land. Little change in strength is expected while Nicole is over the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon and evening. Nicole is expected to weaken to a depression over Georgia tonight, and then it is expected to merge with a frontal boundary over the Mid-Atlantic United States by Friday night. Nicole remains a large tropical storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km) from the center, especially to the northeast. A short time ago, the NOAA Coastal Marine Automated Station at Saint Augustine, Florida, reported 10-minute average winds of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 mph (113 km/h). The NOAA National Ocean Service station at Clearwater Beach, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 51 mph (82 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (95 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure from surface observation is 985 mb (29.09 inches). Winter Haven, Florida, recently reported a pressure of 985.4 mb (29.10 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina in the warning areas today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur within the warning area along the west coast of Florida through tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia including the St. Johns River to the Fuller Warren Bridge...3 to 5 ft * Anclote River to Ochlockonee River...3 to 5 ft * Altamaha Sound Georgia to the South Santee River South Carolina...2 to 4 ft * St. Johns River south of the Fuller Warren Bridge to Georgetown Florida...2 to 4 ft * Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass...2 to 4 ft * Englewood to Anclote River including Tampa Bay...1 to 3 ft * Sebastian Inlet to Hallandale Beach Florida...1 to 3 ft * South Santee River to Surf City North Carolina...1 to 2 ft * North of Ocean Reef to Hallandale Beach Florida including Biscayne Bay...1 to 2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Saturday: * Northwest Bahamas into portions of the Florida Peninsula: 3 to 5 inches with local maxima of 8 inches. * Southeast into the central Appalachians and eastern portions of Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ohio: 2 to 4 inches with local maxima of 6 inches along the Blue Ridge. * Northern Mid-Atlantic into New England: 1 to 4 inches. Flash and urban flooding will be possible, along with renewed river rises on the St. Johns River, across the Florida Peninsula today. Heavy rainfall from this system will spread northward across portions of the Southeast, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England Thursday through Saturday, where limited flooding impacts will be possible. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Hurricane Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this morning over parts of coastal east-central and northeastern Florida. The tornado threat will spread northward across parts of southeastern Georgia and the Carolinas later today through Friday morning. SURF: Large swells generated by Nicole will affect the northwestern Bahamas, the east coast of Florida, and much of the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST. Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
