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| #1115688 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:54 PM 10.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 400 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022 The center of Nicole briefly emerged over water north of Tampa around 18Z and is now straddling the coast of the Florida Big Bend region northwest of Cedar Key. An earlier scatterometer overpass showed winds of about 40 kt west of the center over the Gulf of Mexico, and this is the main basis for the initial intensity of 40 kt. Surface observations indicate that the central pressure has risen to near 990 mb. In addition to weakening, the 34-kt wind radii associated with the storm have decreased, particularly in the northeastern quadrant. This has resulted in significant changes to the warnings with this advisory. The initial motion is now 315/13, and this motion is expected to persist through this evening with the center moving into the eastern Florida Panhandle. Subsequently, a low- to mid-level ridge to the northeast of Nicole should move farther eastward as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough and associated surface cold front are approaching from the west. This evolution should cause the storm to turn northward tonight over Georgia, followed by a faster motion toward the north-northeast on Friday. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous track. Little change in strength is expected until the center moves farther inland tonight. When that happens, Nicole should weaken to a depression over Georgia. On Friday and Friday night, the system is expected to become post-tropical and be absorbed by the large mid-latitude weather system. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the east coast of Florida and Georgia this evening. Tropical storm conditions will spread northward along the west coast of Florida to the coast of the Florida Panhandle through tonight. 2. A storm surge warning is in effect for portions of the northeastern coast of Florida, the southern Georgia coast, and the Florida Big Bend. Residents in the warning area should listen to advice given by local officials. 3. Do not focus on the exact track of Nicole since it is a large storm with hazards extending well to the north of the center, outside of the forecast cone. These hazards will continue to affect much of the Florida peninsula and portions of the southeast United States. 4. Nicole will produce heavy rainfall this evening across the Florida Peninsula. Flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula along with renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will also be possible on Friday in the Southeast through the central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania, into western New York by Friday night into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 29.4N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...ALONG THE COAST 12H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 11/1800Z 34.9N 82.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
