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| #1115773 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 AM 11.Nov.2022) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Nicole Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 400 AM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 NWS radar data and surface observations indicate the center of Nicole is located over southwestern Georgia this morning. The heaviest precipitation is occurring within outer rainbands that are displaced well away from the center over portions of Georgia, South Carolina, and northern Florida. The strongest sustained winds appear to be occurring over the southeastern U.S. offshore waters, where NOAA buoy 41004 southeast of Charleston has been reporting peak 1-minute winds between 25-30 kt. Scatterometer data received just after the previous advisory showed a broad area of 25-kt wind vectors over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico as well. Based on these data, Nicole remains a 30-kt depression for this advisory. Nicole has begun turning more northward during the past few hours, and its initial motion is now north-northwestward at 335/14 kt. The system is expected to accelerate northward to north-northeastward today within the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. This motion should bring the center of Nicole across central and northern Georgia this morning and toward western portions of the Carolinas later today. Nicole is forecast to lose its warm core structure and become a post-tropical cyclone later today, then dissipate by 24 h as it becomes absorbed by a large frontal system moving across the eastern United States. Key Messages: 1. Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River (FL) is ongoing. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will be possible today across the southern and central Appalachians, particularly in the Blue Ridge Mountains. Heavy rain and isolated flooding impacts will extend north through eastern Ohio, west central Pennsylvania, into western New York and northern New England by tonight into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 31.9N 84.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 34.9N 83.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
