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| #1115852 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:06 PM 11.Nov.2022) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole Advisory Number 19 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL172022 400 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2022 ...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY... ...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA/DELMARVA EARLY THIS EVENING... ...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD FROM THE MID- ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 82.0W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Tornado Watch 569 is in effect until 6 pm EST for northeast North Carolina, eastern Virginia and adjacent Coastal Waters. Flood Watches are in effect through late tonight along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains from extreme northeast Georgia and northwest South Carolina to western North Carolina and southwest Virginia. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicole was located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 82.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 47 mph (76 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. As the system has quickly transitioned to an extratropical cyclone... and will orbit around the periphery of a deepening low over the Great Lakes and southeast Canada... gusty surface winds and pressure falls will persist across the Northeast into this weekend. However, the risk of excessive rainfall and localized flash flooding with this extratropical transition will continue to diminish through Saturday and this will be the final advisory for Nicole. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for post-tropical cyclone Nicole can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible early this evening across portions of southeast Virginia and Delmarva. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across the central Appalachians, northern Mid-Atlantic and New England through Saturday morning. Renewed river flooding on the St. Johns River in Florida is ongoing. Across portions of the Appalachians, upper Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and New England, through early Saturday, limited flooding impacts will be possible. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Nicole, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the Weather Prediction Center on this system. $$ Forecaster G. Carbin |
