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| #111783 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 19.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 THERE IS ONLY A HINT OF AN EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS VERY WELL ORGANIZED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT SUCH HIGH LATITUDE...AND IT IS STILL DETACHED FROM ANY FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE WEAKENING TREND HAS ALREADY BEGUN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KNOTS. SINCE GORDON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ALL PHASE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THAT GORDON SHOULD BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SOON. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT GORDON IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AZORES AS A HURRICANE. GORDON IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 090 DEGREES AT 27 KNOTS. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST SO GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING GORDON ACROSS THE AZORES TODAY AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SPAIN ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE ALREADY ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 38.0N 35.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 38.1N 30.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 39.0N 22.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 21/0000Z 41.0N 14.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
