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| #111947 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 19.Sep.2006) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072006 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006 DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND MORE RAGGED-LOOKING IN ITS APPEARANCE. THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GORDON SHOULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL IT DEPARTS THE AZORES...HOWEVER FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE HOSTILE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GORDON WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE POST-GORDON CYCLONE COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND/OR SPAIN AS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM. WITHIN 48 HOURS WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MERGE WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES. GORDON IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC GYRE...AND THE MOTION CONTINUES NEAR 090/29. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT GORDON OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL VERSION WILL GRADUALLY CURVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE LARGER MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 37.7N 28.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 38.0N 22.5W 60 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 40.5N 15.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 21/1200Z 44.0N 8.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
