Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #111997 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 20.Sep.2006) TCDAT3 HURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 500 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T5.5/102 KT. HOWEVER...THE EYE FEATURE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME RAGGED AND LESS DISTINCT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 305/08 KT. THE LONG ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO FINALLY BE UNDERWAY. A NARROW AND ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 65W-70W LONGITUDE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN HELENE MORE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH A LARGER AND MORE HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ACCELERATING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN ON THE WEST SIDE HAS BECOME FLATTENED A LITTLE BIT AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG 65W-70W LONGITUDE IS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE. THIS SLIGHTLY UNFAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...BUT THE SHEAR WILL STILL BE LOW ENOUGH AND THE SSTS WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...AND HELENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE IT BEGINS TO RECURVE IN 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. BY 72-96 HOURS...A TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED AS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY CAPTURES HELENE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 25.3N 55.4W 95 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 26.4N 56.3W 100 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 28.6N 56.9W 100 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 31.0N 56.7W 95 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 33.9N 55.0W 90 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 39.7N 48.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 45.0N 38.0W 70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 25/0600Z 49.0N 29.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
