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| #1136897 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 PM 01.Jun.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022023 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2023 The depression remains a sheared tropical cyclone. While a new burst of moderate to deep convection has developed this evening over the northeastern portion of the circulation, the center is exposed and appears elongated based on satellite imagery and low-level GOES-16 derived motion winds. Given the lack of improvement in its structure, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on a blend of the earlier aircraft data and more recent satellite estimates. The cyclone appears to be moving slowly southward in the latest satellite imagery, with an estimated initial motion of 180/3 kt. As the associated upper-level trough axis continues to shift eastward, deep-layer northwesterly flow is expected to steer the cyclone southward to south-southeastward at a slightly faster speed during the next couple of days. The latest track guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one with only minor adjustments based on the latest consensus aids. There is still a brief window for some modest strengthening during the next 6-12 h, as the warm Gulf SSTs and cold temperatures aloft could provide enough instability to support more deep convection during the overnight diurnal maximum period. The official NHC forecast still calls for the system to briefly become a tropical storm before environmental conditions become increasingly hostile later on Friday and into Saturday. In addition to increasing deep-layer shear, dry air in the surrounding environment and less favorable dynamics will make it difficult for the cyclone to sustain organized convection and should induce a weakening trend. This forecast shows the cyclone degenerating to a remnant low by 48 h and dissipating by 60 h, with support from the latest GFS and ECMWF model-simulated satellite imagery. Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, coastal watches and warnings are not necessary at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 27.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 26.8N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 25.4N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 23.9N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 22.9N 85.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart |
