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#1139922 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 AM 19.Jun.2023)
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
1500 UTC MON JUN 19 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 40.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 40.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 39.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.2N 42.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.7N 45.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.2N 48.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KELLY