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| #1140587 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 22.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 The tropical cyclone continues to exhibit a shear pattern on satellite imagery with the center located to the east of the main area of deep convection. Banding features are not very well defined at this time. Although the low-level center is perhaps a little better defined than it was earlier today, there has been little change to the overall convective organization. The current intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory, which is the average of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone will remain over warm waters and within a marginally moist atmosphere for the next several days. This should allow at least gradual strengthening during the next couple of days. The main factor for the longer-term future intensity of the system is likely to be a large upper-level trough that extends from the northeastern Caribbean Sea northeastward into the Atlantic for several hundred miles. This feature is predicted by the global models to persist through the 72 hour time frame. Since the tropical cyclone is expected to interact with this trough in 2-3 days, the associated increase in vertical shear will likely cause some weakening. By the end of the forecast period, when the system nears subtropical latitudes, the shear may decrease. However, it is not yet clear that the cyclone will be able to make a comeback by that time. The depression continues on a west-northwesterly track with an estimated motion of 285/12 kt. There is not much change to the track forecast reasoning. For the next several days, the system should continue on a generally west-northwestward, to nearly northwestward, path along the periphery of a subtropical high pressure area. The official track forecast is very close to the dynamical model consensus and is slightly to the west of the previous NHC track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 11.5N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 12.0N 45.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 13.2N 48.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.4N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 16.0N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 17.6N 56.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 19.1N 58.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 21.6N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 24.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
