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| #114063 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 02.Oct.2006) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092006 500 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2006 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ISSAC HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE TODAY AS THE CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY. AROUND 1600 UTC... THE CENTER MOVED BY CANADIAN BUOY 44138...WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT WITH A PEAK GUST TO 56 KT. ISAAC'S CENTER RECENTLY PASSED JUST OFFSHORE CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 52 KT WERE REPORTED. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 035/35. ISAAC IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND IS FORECAST TO SOON MERGE WITH THE LARGER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM TO ITS WEST. THE UKMET...GFS...AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE SMALL ISAAC WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE SYSTEM ALONG AN EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 12-24 HOURS. IN DEFERENCE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SINCE IT IS QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAAC. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 47.1N 52.2W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 03/0600Z 51.5N 48.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 03/1800Z 53.5N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH |
