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| #1140653 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 22.Jun.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Bret Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023 1100 PM AST Thu Jun 22 2023 The center of Bret is currently near St. Vincent in the Windward Islands. Satellite imagery and radar data from Barbados indicate that the cyclone is losing organization due to increasing vertical wind shear, with only minimal convection currently near the center. The remainder of the convection is in bands and clusters well removed from the center in the eastern semicircle. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft shows that the maximum surface winds are now near 50 kt, and that will be the initial intensity. The initial motion is now 270/16 kt. Bret is on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the cyclone or its remnants almost due west for the next several days. The forecast track calls for Bret to move away from the Lesser Antilles during the next several hours and then move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea Friday and Saturday. There are no significant changes to either the track forecast guidance or the forecast track since the previous advisory. Bret is moving into an area of moderate to strong southwesterly shear associated with an amplifying upper-level trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea. This, combined with some dry air entrainment, should cause steady weakening starting on Friday morning and continuing for the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast continues to trend downward and now calls for Bret to degenerate to a trough or tropical wave Saturday night or Sunday in agreement with the global model guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Bret is moving across the Lesser Antilles at this time as a strong tropical storm. Conditions in the area should improve later tonight as the storm moves away. 2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Martinique, and Dominica. There is a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast within the warning area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.3N 61.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 13.4N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 13.5N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 13.6N 70.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 13.7N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
