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| #1140955 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 24.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 500 PM AST Sat Jun 24 2023 The satellite presentation of Cindy this afternoon is fairly unimpressive, with an exposed low-level swirl ejecting quickly northwestward away from the pulsing convection present to its east. Earlier, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission measured Cindy's surface pressure, which was higher than estimated earlier, at 1005 mb. However, the fast motion of the storm this afternoon has still enabled strong winds to exist on the east side of the circulation. The aircraft found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 59 kt, with the highest SFMR obs up to 50 kt. Thus, despite the rather disheveled appearance , Cindy remains a 50-kt tropical storm for this advisory. However, most of these winds are concentrated in the northeast quadrant, with much lighter winds on its western side. Aircraft fixes indicate that the tropical storm is still moving quickly to the northwest, estimated at 310/18 kt. This quick northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 12-18 h, though the track model guidance suggest the system should slow down its forward motion thereafter. There continues to be large divergence in the track guidance after about 24 hours, with the GFS, HWRF, and HAFS guidance on the east side of the track envelope (related to some degree of center reformation or relocation to the northeast), with the CMC, ECMWF, & COAMPS-TC on the west side. The NHC track forecast ops to continue taking a blend between the ECMWF and TVCA consensus aid. Cindy should pass well northeast of the northernmost Leeward Islands tomorrow into Monday. Even though Cindy remains a 50-kt tropical storm, this is as much of a reflection of its quick forward motion than its current organization, which has gone downhill this afternoon, supported by the higher central pressure measured by aircraft observations. Vertical wind shear is forecast to quickly increase to around 30-kt over the next day or so, and that combined with a fairly dry mid-level environment should result in weakening over the next several days. Given the fragile nature of Cindy's circulation currently, it seems likely the tropical cyclone will succumb to the unfavorable environment. In fact, the latest ECMWF forecast shows the tropical cyclone opening up into a trough as soon as in the next 48 hours. While the latest NHC intensity forecast does not show dissipation quite that soon, it has been moved up to 72-h in best agreement with the latest ECMWF and CMC solutions. It should be noted, however, that there remains a significant portion of the guidance that, even if Cindy dissipates, could attempt to regenerate by the end of the forecast period as the shear lowers. However, that is not reflected in the NHC intensity forecast at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 17.8N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 19.7N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 21.8N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 23.9N 60.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 25.5N 61.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 27.0N 62.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin |
