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| #1140986 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 24.Jun.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042023 1100 PM AST Sat Jun 24 2023 Cindy has not changed much in organization during the last several hours, with the low-level center located near the western or northwestern edge of the main convective mass. While this mass has decreased in coverage this evening, that has not yet resulted in a significant decrease in the satellite intensity estimates. Thus, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 50 kt. Satellite imagery shows strong southwesterly upper-level winds blowing toward the cyclone, which is resulting in 20-30 kt of shear over the system. Cindy has slowed its forward speed a little with the initial motion now 315/15 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the northeast and east of the cyclone should continue to steer it generally northwestward for the next couple of days. The new track forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast and lies just to the left of the various consensus models. Cindy should pass well northeast of the northernmost Leeward Islands tomorrow into Monday. The intensity forecast is a tale of two parts. The first part, which is high confidence, is that the current strong shear will continue for another 36-48 h, causing Cindy to weaken. This will most likely result in the cyclone degenerating to a trough or broad low pressure area between 48-60 h. The second part, which is lower confidence, involves the possibility of regeneration after 72 h. The majority of the guidance suggests the possibility that Cindy will find an area of lighter shear and possibly undergo a favorable interaction with an upper-level trough that would allow the system to regenerate. The GFS is the most aggressive with this development, but all of the models except the ECMWF show it to some degree. A possible regeneration will not be included in the official forecast at this time, but could be added in later advisories. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 18.7N 55.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 20.3N 57.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 22.4N 59.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 24.2N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 25.7N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
