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#1144147 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 17.Jul.2023)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052023
2100 UTC MON JUL 17 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 41.6W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 30SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 41.6W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 42.2W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.1N 40.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 35.4N 39.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.3N 39.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 33.6N 40.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 33.8N 41.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 34.4N 43.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 36.7N 46.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 40.5N 50.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 41.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE