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| #1144884 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 22.Jul.2023) TCDAT5 Hurricane Don Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052023 500 PM AST Sat Jul 22 2023 Don`s cloud pattern continued to become better organized after the release of the previous advisory with convection wrapping around an eye in infrared imagery. Since that time, the cloud tops over the western semicircle have warmed somewhat, but a 1648 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass showed a well-defined low- to mid-level eye with deep convection surrounding it. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 1800 UTC ranged from T4.0 (65 kt) from TAFB and T3.5 (55 kt) from SAB, with objective estimates in the 60 to 63 kt range. Since subjective estimates have yielded a T4.0 throughout much of the afternoon, the initial intensity has been raised to 65 kt, making Don a hurricane. Today`s strengthening was the result of the storm passing over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, however it will move north of those warmer waters later this evening, and Don has likely peaked in intensity. Weakening should begin overnight, with a faster rate of weakening expected Sunday through Monday as Don moves over even colder waters and the vertical wind shear increases. The cyclone is expected to become post-tropical by Sunday night, and dissipate by Monday night or early Tuesday. Don is moving northward or 005 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward late tonight as it becomes embedded within southwesterly flow between a ridge to its east and a broad trough over eastern Canada. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion should then continue until the system dissipates in 2-3 days. The track guidance is again tightly clustered and no significant changes to the previous official forecast were required. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 40.1N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 42.0N 49.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 44.5N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 46.4N 44.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/1800Z 47.7N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
