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| #1148495 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 19.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 19 2023 The latest CIMSS proxy-vis satellite imagery shows that the low-level center of Tropical Depression Six has become completely exposed, with all the convection displace to the east. Infrared imagery also shows that the cold cloud tops from earlier this afternoon have warmed over the last few hours. A blend of subjective and objective satellite estimates remain around 30 kt. Therefore, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression is currently in a hostile environment with strong deep-layer vertical shear, and dry mid-level relative humidities. These conditions are expected to persist, with the depression expected to be fairly short-lived. Simulated satellite imagery shows the potential for a few more convective bursts over the next day or so. The official forecast calls for no further strengthening, and for the system to become a post-tropical remnant low in 36 hours and dissipate by 48 hours. However, some models suggest that it may become devoid of convection a little earlier than currently forecast. The intensity forecast remains near the model consensus. The depression is moving westward at 12 kt, to the south of a low-level ridge. The system is expected to continue westward, with a slight decrease in forward speed over the next day or so. By Monday, the system will round the edge of the ridge with a gradual turn to the west-northwest. The track forecast is very close to the previous NHC forecast and lies near the corrected model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 17.2N 51.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 17.5N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 17.8N 55.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 18.3N 57.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown |
