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| #1148644 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 20.Aug.2023) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Emily Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072023 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 20 2023 Emily continues to be in a highly sheared environment this evening, with convection displaced well to the northeast of the exposed low-level center. A recent scatterometer (ASCAT-B) had a partial pass over the system that showed winds around 40 kt. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB and objective satellite CIMMS ADT and AiDT were slightly lower with this advisory. Given the satellite estimates and scatterometer wind data, the intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Emily likely reached peak intensity earlier this afternoon, with a gradual weakening trend expected over the next day or so. The system is in a highly sheared environment, with shear forecast to increase even more over the next 24 to 36 hours. Models are in fairly good agreement that the system will become a remnant low in a couple of days. While the NHC forecast has the system remaining a remnant low throughout the period, there is some guidance, including the ECMWF, that dissipate the system earlier. The intensity guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and the forecast lies near the corrected model consensus aids. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 8 kt, and a general west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days while the storm moves along the southwestern periphery of the ridge. After that time, a turn to the north is forecast while the storm moves around the west side of the ridge and toward a weakness. The new track forecast is similar to the previous, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope closest to model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 20.5N 40.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 20.9N 41.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 21.5N 43.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 22.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/0000Z 23.6N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/1200Z 25.3N 48.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/0000Z 27.5N 49.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z 32.9N 50.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 26/0000Z 39.0N 49.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly/Brown |
