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| #1148729 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 AM 21.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Gert Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 21 2023 Gert barely qualifies a tropical cyclone. Visible satellite imagery indicates it still has a well-enough defined circulation sustained by a small area of deep convection that is displaced east of Gert`s surface center. That said, during the few hours since sunrise, the tropical storm`s circulation appears to have become stretched as convection has waned. The initial intensity estimate is 35 kt based on recent satellite estimates and ASCAT data last night, but new ASCAT data is expected very soon that will provide better information about the current maximum winds. Strong upper-level winds associated with an upper-level low to the north of Gert and outflow from the more robust Franklin to its west ought to prevent Gert`s convection from getting better organized. Most dynamical models continue to indicate that Gert will open into a trough within the next 12-36 h. While the tiny tropical cyclone has been quite persistent thus far, its hard to envision Gert lasting much longer in its current environment. Although the NHC forecast maintains Gert for a little longer, it could realistically dissipate at any time. The initial motion of the tropical cyclone remains westward at a slightly slower forward pace than overnight. Gert (or its remnants) will likely turn west-northwestward or northwestward by tonight until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast is very close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.9N 57.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.2N 58.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 22/1200Z 17.8N 59.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 23/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
