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| #1148825 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 21.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 21 2023 Franklin is not a well-organized tropical cyclone at this time. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft was in the system earlier this evening and found an elongated low-level circulation, with possible multiple surface centers. Franklin is also fairly asymmetric on satellite imagery, with convection only on the east side of the storm, near the mid-level center. The initial intensity will remain at 45 kt for this advisory, which is in between the higher TAFB and lower SAB intensity estimates. A NOAA G-IV mission should hopefully provide more in-situ data overnight. The tropical storm has been meandering in the eastern Caribbean for much of the day. There is the potential that the center may try to reform to the northeast, near a new burst of convection and the mid-level center, but this is an uncertain evolution. Eventually, mid-level ridging will build to the east of Franklin, which should allow the system to move more northward in the next 36 hours, and then northeastward between 48-96 h. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly to the right in the short term, and it lies a little east of the consensus aids given the potential reformation of the center to the northeast. Franklin is currently in an environment of moderate vertical wind shear, which is disrupting the cyclone`s organization. SHIPS guidance shows that the shear will slightly decrease over the next 12-24 hours, which will allow for some intensification before it reaches Hispaniola. After land interaction over Hispaniola, there will be some weakening due to the mountainous terrain. After Franklin emerges north of the island in the western Atlantic, the forecast calls for some slight strengthening as it moves northeast, then northward. The intensity forecast is fairly low confidence given all the different environmental factors and land interaction, but lies near the corrected consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across portions of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola through the middle of the week. The heavy rainfall may produce areas of flash and urban flooding as well as river rises and mudslides. Across Hispaniola, significant and potentially life-threatening flash flooding is possible Tuesday into Wednesday. 2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti beginning on Tuesday where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 14.5N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 14.9N 70.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 16.3N 70.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 18.1N 70.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 20.1N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 21.6N 69.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 22.6N 67.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 23.7N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 25.9N 65.8W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Blake |
