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| #1148873 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 22.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Gert Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062023 500 AM AST Tue Aug 22 2023 Gert is a very disorganized system and may no longer have a closed circulation. Consequently, we`ll await further justification from the conventional visible imagery and this morning`s scatterometer passes. The current intensity estimate remains at 25 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS intensity guidance suggests that strong shear should weaken the system further while it moves west-northwestward, and Gert is forecast to open up into a trough of low-pressure, and this is explicitly shown in the NHC forecast. Once again, no significant changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts, which is also in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus and global model forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 17.2N 58.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 17.6N 59.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch/Roberts |
