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| #1149030 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 22.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2023 The satellite presentation of Franklin has improved since the last advisory. Recent Proxy Vis imagery suggest that the low-level circulation has become better defined, although there is still some question exactly where the center is. The overall cloud pattern suggests the low-level center is closer to a recent burst of deep convection, closer to the mid-level circulation found by the last NOAA reconnaissance mission. A blend of subjective and objective satellite estimates remain near 35 kt for this advisory, which is in agreement with what NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft found earlier. Therefore, the intensity will remain 35 kt for this advisory. The system looks to have finally started a northward motion towards the island of Hispaniola, moving at 8 kt. The track guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement with a northward motion through tomorrow and then a northeastward course near the end of the work week due to broad troughing located over the western Atlantic. By days 4 and 5, a stronger mid-level ridge develops over the central Atlantic, with Franklin expected to turn back to the north by the end of the forecast period. Given the uncertainty in the center position, the current NHC forecast track lies near the previous forecast, which is also near the HCCA corrected consensus aid. The new intensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous advisory. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so due to land interaction with Hispaniola and moderate wind shear. Gradual strengthening is anticipated after Franklin emerges north of Hispaniola due to warm waters but still notable shear. For days 4 and 5, when Franklin is still over the very warm western Atlantic waters, wind shear should decrease slightly, and strengthening is forecast, with the system becoming a hurricane by the end of the period. The NHC intensity forecast after day 3 is slightly higher than the previous advisory, but lower than the stronger HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall from Franklin is expected across much of Hispaniola into Thursday. The heavy rainfall is expected to produce significant and potentially life-threatening flash and urban flooding as well as mudslides, particularly over central Hispaniola through Wednesday. 2. Franklin is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect, beginning later tonight and continuing through Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.4N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 17.6N 71.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 20.0N 70.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 21.5N 69.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 22.3N 68.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 22.6N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 23.1N 67.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 24.9N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 28.7N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Blake |
