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| #1149177 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 23.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2023 Franklin is showing signs of intensification on the latest satellite imagery with increasing deep convection near and southeast of the center. This trend is confirmed by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission that has been flying through the storm during the past few hours with maximum flight-level winds of 46 kt, believable SFMR winds of at least 40 kt, and the central pressure falling to 1002 mb. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt as a blend of the data. The storm continues heading north-northeastward or 015/11 kt, steered by a ridge over the eastern Caribbean. Franklin should move around the northern periphery of the ridge, turning east-northeastward tomorrow and slowing down by Friday. As the remnants of Emily exit the central Atlantic, mid-level ridging should build back northeast of Franklin, turning the cyclone north-northwestward and northward this weekend. For such an unusual August track, the model guidance is in reasonably good agreement, and little change was made to the last NHC track forecast. Moderate westerly shear is forecast to limit the strengthening rate of Franklin during the next couple of days, though very warm waters should allow for gradual intensification. In 2 or 3 days, an upper-level trough should cutoff to the southwest of Franklin, creating a lower shear and very diffluent flow pattern near the storm. This environmental change will likely promote significant strengthening by late this weekend, and Franklin is forecast to become a powerful hurricane southwest of Bermuda. The new intensity forecast is raised from the previous one at most time periods, and the stronger regional hurricane models showing major hurricane strength at long range are certainly reasonable possibilities. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Localized heavy rainfall from the outer bands of Franklin could cause further isolated flash flooding through Thursday in vulnerable areas of the Dominican Republic that already received torrential rainfall. 2. Franklin is expected to continue to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 21.2N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 22.3N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 23.0N 68.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 23.3N 66.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 23.7N 65.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 24.4N 65.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 25.8N 65.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 29.2N 67.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 33.0N 67.4W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
