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| #1149207 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 24.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 500 AM EDT Thu Aug 24 2023 Franklin is pulling away from the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos, and appears to be gradually gaining strength. Satellite images show deep convection increasing near and to the east of the center, and the Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported that a partial eyewall was developing on their last pass through the storm. The initial intensity of 45 kt is based on the earlier reconnaissance data and is also near the average of the various satellite intensity estimates. The tropical storm is moving northward at 11 kt and is being steered by the western periphery of a mid-level ridge that is centered over the central subtropical Atlantic. The ridge is expected to weaken soon, and that should cause Franklin to turn northeastward and slow down during the next couple of days. However, beyond that time, the models show the ridge building back to the west, and the flow between that feature and a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. should cause Franklin to bend back northward at a slightly faster pace. The models have shifted a little to the left this cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction and takes the system to the west of Bermuda early next week. Franklin appears to be on a gradual strengthening trend, and that is expected to continue through the weekend as the storm remains over warm waters, in a moist environment, and in generally moderate wind shear conditions. All of the normally skillful intensity models bring Franklin to hurricane strength in a few days, and the NHC intensity forecast follows that theme. This forecast is similar to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 21.9N 70.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 22.6N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 23.2N 68.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 23.5N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 24.0N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 24.9N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 26.0N 67.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 29.4N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 33.5N 68.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
