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| #1149516 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 AM 26.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 AM AST Sat Aug 26 2023 Franklin has become better organized this morning on satellite and microwave imagery. An earlier SSMIS microwave pass showed a developing core with the mid and low-level center becoming more vertically aligned. Early visible satellite images showed a ragged eye, which has become cloud filled in the last hour or two. Deep convection around Franklin has become more symmetric compared to recent days, likely due to a decrease in vertical wind shear. Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters have been in the system this morning, and found that the surface pressure has dropped to 989 mb and SFMR winds were around 60 to 65 kt from both aircraft. Given the data from the aircraft reconnaissance, Franklin has been upgraded to a Hurricane, with the initial intensity set at 65 kt. Franklin is the second hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Franklin is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt. A north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the next few days as the storm moves along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, taking it to the west of Bermuda on Tuesday. By the middle of next week, a faster northeastward motion is expected when Franklin moves in between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. The track models have shifted to the west once again this cycle, and the NHC track forecast follows that trend and is slightly slower than the previous one at long ranges. Franklin is expected to steadily strengthen during the next few days with lower vertical wind shear, and warm sea surface temperatures in the western Atlantic. Franklin is forecast to become a major hurricane early next week. The strengthening trend should end in about 3 to 4 days with shear expected to increase. By Day 5, the system will move over much cooler SSTs leading to increased weakening. The intensity models are higher this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged upward, but still remains below the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 23.5N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 24.2N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 25.4N 67.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 27.0N 68.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 28.5N 69.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 30.2N 69.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 31.9N 69.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 35.6N 65.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 40.5N 56.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Pasch |
