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| #1149572 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:51 PM 26.Aug.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 700 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 86.2W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. The depression is nearly stationary, and little overall movement is expected through Sunday. A slow, generally northward, motion is expected to begin on Monday. On the forecast track, the center will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm on Sunday. The system could then become a hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the Gulf Coast and portions of the Southeast by mid- to late next week. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area over western Cuba beginning on Sunday. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg |
