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| #1149603 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:11 AM 27.Aug.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 100 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 ...DEPRESSION BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 86.8W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Isle of Youth Cuba A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 86.8 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through early Monday. A faster motion toward the north or north-northeast is expected later on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by Tuesday. A Weatherflow station on Cozumel recently reported a sustained wind of 36 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 48 mph (78 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches) based on surface observations from Cozumel and Playa del Carmen. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Ten can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Ten is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches, across portions of the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. Across western Cuba, rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, are expected. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba. Heavy rainfall is also likely to impact portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and the Southeast by mid to late week. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western Cuba tonight or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Isle of Youth tonight or Monday. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake |
