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| #1149662 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 27.Aug.2023) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023 ...DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME... ...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel * Pinar del Rio Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Isle of Youth Cuba A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in Florida should monitor the progress of this system. Storm surge and wind watches for portions of the Florida west coast will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.8 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h), and it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through tonight. A faster motion toward the north is expected on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm today, and strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Portions of the eastern Yucatan: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated higher totals of 6 inches. Western Cuba: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia: From Tuesday into Wednesday, 3 to 6 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10 inches. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread into portions of the Carolinas by Wednesday into Thursday. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides across western Cuba. Scattered flash and urban flooding can also be expected across portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Southeast U.S. by Tuesday into Thursday. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula today and western Cuba tonight or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Isle of Youth tonight or Monday. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
