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#1149705 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 27.Aug.2023)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM IDALIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102023
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.5N 85.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 21.7N 85.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.4N 84.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.6N 84.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 140SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.7N 83.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 150SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 31.3N 81.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 34.5N 76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 85.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH