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| #1150069 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 29.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023 1100 AM AST Tue Aug 29 2023 Visible satellite imagery and recent scatterometer data indicate that the area of low pressure over the central subtropical Atlantic has become better defined. Deep convection associated with the system has persisted since yesterday, but it is located over the eastern side of the circulation due to moderate westerly shear. The ASCAT data revealed believable peak winds of around 30 kt, and that is the basis for the initial intensity for this advisory. Guidance suggests that the shear could decrease slightly in the short term which could allow for some slight strengthening. The NHC forecast follows that scenario and calls for the depression to become a tropical storm within the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase markedly and no additional strengthening is indicated. By 72 hours, the system is forecast to become post-tropical, and dissipation is indicated by 96 hours. Both of those events could occur sooner than indicated below. The depression is currently moving slowly northward or 360/2 kt. A slow north-northwestward to northward motion is forecast during the day or so as a mid-level ridge currently to the north of the depression slides eastward. After that time, a slightly faster northward to north-northeastward motion is expected as the cyclone is steered between the aforementioned ridge and Hurricane Franklin to its west. The NHC forecast is between the HFIP corrected consensus and the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 27.9N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 28.3N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 28.9N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 29.7N 52.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 30.8N 52.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 32.5N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 35.0N 51.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
