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| #1150199 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 29.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 29 2023 The depression has lost some organization since this morning. Only a few disorganized showers are present to the east of the depression`s slightly elongated surface wind field. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, but this is higher than 00Z Dvorak estimates from TAFB or SAB. An ASCAT-B pass just missed the center of the depression, but did not show any indication of winds higher than about 25 kt in the eastern portion of the depression`s wind field, so its possible the NHC intensity analysis is generous. The depression has moved erratically since it formed, with its recent movement estimated near 285/2 kt. Continued meandering is likely tonight, but the cyclone should begin to lift slowly northward by tomorrow, moving in low-level steering currents between Hurricane Franklin and a ridge over the central Atlantic. The latest NHC forecast is a little slower than the previous, remaining close to the multi-model track consensus. It`s still possible that the depression could briefly organize enough deep convection to become a tropical storm. However, this does not appear to be the most likely scenario anymore and it is not supported by any dynamical models. Upper-level outflow from Franklin should cause the depression to become a post-tropical remnant low within about 2 days, if not sooner, and most models forecast it will dissipate within the next 2-3 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 28.2N 52.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 28.6N 52.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0000Z 29.4N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1200Z 30.4N 53.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/0000Z 32.4N 52.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
