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| #1150283 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:45 AM 30.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023 500 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2023 The depression re-developed a larger area of deep convection early this morning, with signs of lightning activity associated with that convection in GLM data. While this will allow the depression to maintain its classification as a tropical cyclone for a while longer, satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB still only support an intensity of around 30 kt. The depression continues to meander, having drifted eastward for the past several hours. It is still expected to turn generally northward later today, albeit at a very slow pace. Models suggest it could finally begin to accelerate northward by Thursday, but this acceleration will likely cause the system to open into a trough. The NHC track forecast remains near the multi-model consensus. There has been no change to the intensity forecast thinking. The depression still has another day or so to briefly strengthen and become a very short-lived tropical storm, but most of the intensity guidance does not support that scenario. Instead, it is becoming more likely that the depression will succumb to a combination of dry air and shear and become a post-tropical remnant low in another day or so. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 28.2N 52.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 28.4N 52.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 29.2N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 30.6N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 01/0600Z 32.7N 52.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky |
