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| #1150491 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 30.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2023 Satellite imagery indicates the eye of Franklin is beginning to lose its definition and become cloud-filled. Radar imagery from Bermuda shows outer rain bands have been crossing the island this evening, bringing sustained tropical-storm-force winds and gusty conditions. The initial intensity estimate for this advisory has been lowered to 85 kt based on a blend of the CI and Final T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB. Franklin has turned to the east-northeast at an estimated 12 kt, passing to the north of Bermuda. The hurricane is moving in the flow between a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and a trough over the northeastern U.S. Track guidance in the first 48 h remains decently-clustered, showing Franklin continuing generally east-northeastward with an increased forward speed. By 60 hours and beyond, there is a larger spread in the guidance as Franklin turns northeastward while it interacts with the upper-level trough. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and lies between the simple consensus aid, TVCN, and the corrected consensus aid, HCCA. Based on the latest satellite trends, Franklin is continuing to weaken in an environment of significant northerly vertical wind shear. Only minor adjustments have been made to the latest official forecast, which shows gradual weakening through 60 hours as the vertical wind shear is expected to increase. By day 3, Franklin is expected to become a strong extratropical cyclone, though this could occur even sooner. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are occuring on Bermuda this evening while Franklin passes north of the island. 2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents are occurring along the east coast of the United States. These conditions are expected to continue during the next day or two. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 34.6N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 35.3N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 36.5N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 37.7N 55.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 39.2N 52.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 41.0N 49.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 42.7N 46.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 04/0000Z 45.9N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 05/0000Z 50.1N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci |
