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| #1150705 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 31.Aug.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Franklin Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082023 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023 Convection is separating from the low-level circulation of Franklin this evening. Infrared satellite imagery show the coldest cloud tops limited to the southeast quadrant, confirming the cyclone is experiencing significant vertical wind shear. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease and range from 70-77 kt. The initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. Franklin is forecast to complete its extratropical transition during the next day or so. However, global models indicate it will remain a powerful system despite losing its tropical characteristics. Therefore, the official intensity forecast shows Franklin gradually weakening before becoming a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone. A faster weakening trend is predicted later in the forecast period, similar to the previous prediction and lies on the higher end of the guidance envelope. The hurricane is moving to the east-northeast at 13 kt. The track reasoning remains unchanged. An acceleration generally northeastward is expected during the next couple of days as the hurricane is steered by the flow between a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the coast of Atlantic Canada. The track guidance is in good agreement and little changes have been made to the official forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 36.8N 58.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 38.1N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 40.0N 51.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 42.2N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 03/0000Z 44.3N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 03/1200Z 46.0N 39.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 04/0000Z 47.3N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 05/0000Z 50.1N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/0000Z 53.2N 25.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Bucci |
