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| #1150711 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 31.Aug.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023 1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2023 Jose is a tiny tropical cyclone with the convective cloud tops only extending 50 to 60 n mi across. However, geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the storm has a tight circulation with evidence of a mid-level eye feature. A recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 40-45 kt range, but since the system is so small that instrument likely can not resolve the peak winds. The initial intensity is increased to 50 kt, which is above the Dvorak estimates. Jose is likely near its peak intensity. There is no way Jose will escape the outflow associated with Hurricane Franklin, that is expected to begin affecting the small storm by midday Friday. Therefore, the forecast shows a steady weakening trend until it becomes absorbed by Franklin in about 36 hours. The storm is moving northward at 11 kt and is moving in the flow between Franklin and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. A faster motion to the north is expected until the system dissipates on Saturday. The NHC track forecast is slightly to the west of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 32.7N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 35.5N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 39.9N 51.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Fritz |
