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| #1150866 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 01.Sep.2023) TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112023 500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2023 Jose has started to become more elongated in recent geostationary imagery. However, a midday AMSR2 microwave pass showed that the system still has a small coherent mid-level circulation. The intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with recent UW-CIMSS AiDT, DMINT, and DPRINT estimates. It is noted that the intensity is more uncertain than usual given the compact nature of the system and its degraded convective structure. The storm is beginning to move underneath the upper-level clouds associated with Franklin`s outflow. Jose continues to accelerate towards the north-northeast at about 28 kt. The increase in forward motion and interaction with Franklin could lead to a slight expansion of the tropical-storm-force winds on the east side of Jose. The tropical storm is still expected to dissipate sometime tonight as it becomes absorbed by Franklin. The track forecast is largely based on the global model wind fields, and little intensity change is anticipated through dissipation as the fast forward motion is likely to maintain stronger winds over the eastern semicircle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 39.4N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 43.5N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stevenson/Reinhart |
