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| #1150913 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:50 PM 01.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122023 200 AM CVT Sat Sep 02 2023 The depression continues to produce deep bursts of convection east of its estimated center. Scatterometer data measured the western portion of the circulation just before 0000 UTC, showing no tropical-storm-force winds. While there is a possibility for stronger winds on the eastern, convective side of the circulation, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is estimated to be just west of north at 11 kt. The depression is moving between a ridge over western Africa and a mid- to upper-level low over the central Atlantic and expected to turn to the northwest shortly. By day 3, the cyclone is expected to slow in forward speed as the vortex becomes more shallow and turn northward in the low-level flow. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory prediction. The window for potential intensification is quickly closing. Vertical wind shear is expected to increase as the cyclone moves into an increasingly drier environment within a day or so. Most of the intensity guidance does not show any strengthening beyond now. However, global models are not capturing the most recent flare of convection and may be underestimating the short-term intensity forecast. The official prediction shows that the depression could still become a tropical storm within 12 h. Beyond 12 h, the cyclone is expected to gradually weaken. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggests the depression should be devoid of convection and become a remnant low in a couple of days or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 21.6N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 22.8N 29.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 24.5N 31.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 25.5N 32.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 26.2N 33.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1200Z 27.1N 34.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 27.8N 35.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z 29.2N 35.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci |
