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| #1151208 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 03.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Katia Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122023 900 PM GMT Sun Sep 03 2023 The center of Katia remains exposed on the latest satellite imagery, with a large convective burst in the northern semicircle noted this evening. The intensity estimates are a split decision, with about half of data points suggesting tropical depression, and the other half still a tropical storm. With the burst in convection, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, and there could be further clarity from partial scatterometer data this evening. A combination of southerly shear and very dry mid-level air should extinguish the thunderstorm activity early Monday and cause gradual weakening. The global models continue to show no organized thunderstorm activity by tomorrow, and Katia is likely to become a remnant low in 12-24 h. The storm is holding steady on a northwest course at 6 kt. Katia is expected to be steered between a large middle- to upper- tropospheric cut-off low to the west over the central subtropical Atlantic and a mid-level ridge to the east during the next 36 hours or so. As Katia weakens, it should get trapped within the low-level subtropical ridge, causing little motion by Tuesday, and a southward drift by Wednesday. No significant changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 27.1N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 27.5N 33.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 28.0N 34.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 28.4N 34.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 28.4N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0600Z 28.0N 33.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z 27.5N 33.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
