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| #1151245 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 03.Sep.2023) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Katia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122023 300 AM GMT Mon Sep 04 2023 Deep convection has been on the decline and only a small area of thunderstorms remain well north of the center. A recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds in the 25-30 kt range, and based on that data, Katia has been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. This value is also in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates. The depression is moving slowly west-northwestward. A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected for about another day before the system reverses course and drifts southeastward in the flow between a low- to mid-level ridge to its west and a deep-layer low to the northeast. Only small changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one lies near the various consensus models. West-southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air should continue to weaken Katia, and this system will likely become a remnant low in 12 to 24 hours. Dissipation is expected in 3 to 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 27.1N 33.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 27.5N 33.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 28.1N 34.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/1200Z 28.4N 34.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/0000Z 28.3N 34.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/1200Z 27.9N 33.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0000Z 27.4N 33.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
