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#1151378 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 AM 05.Sep.2023)
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132023
1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2023

NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 40.2W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 40.2W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 12.8N 42.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.6N 44.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.4N 47.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.3N 49.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.2N 52.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.3N 54.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 19.4N 59.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 40.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE