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| #1151383 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 AM 05.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023 Satellite images indicate that the tropical wave (Invest AL95) that we have been following for several days has become better organized this morning, with many curved low-level banding features. A partial scatterometer pass near 1201 UTC indicated a well-defined center had formed, with winds speeds of about 30 kt. Thus, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Thirteen, and the current intensity is set to 30 kt. The depression is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt. A mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to persist to the north of the tropical cyclone, keeping the system moving with this general motion through Saturday. The spread in the model guidance is remarkably low for a first advisory, and the official forecast is near or west of the model consensus. However, it should be noted that the NOAA corrected-consensus aids and some ensemble members are still to the left of the official forecast, so it is too early to determine exactly how close this system will get to the Leeward Islands given the average track forecast error at those time ranges. The environment around the depression appears to be conducive for strengthening. The only obvious hindering factor is light-to-moderate northeasterly shear, which should keep the intensification rate in check in the short term. However, in two to three days, this shear is forecast to relax with an upper-level ridge building near the cyclone, and the system should be moving over record-warm waters of near 30 deg C east of the Lesser Antilles (that would look more in place in the Gulf of Mexico). These factors could support rapid intensification by the end of the week, although it too early to determine exactly when this might occur until a better-defined inner core forms. The NHC intensity forecast is extremely bullish for a first forecast, but remarkably lies below the intensity consensus. All indications are that the depression will become a strong hurricane by the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a major hurricane by this weekend and could bring impacts to the Leeward Islands by that time. While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 12.5N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 12.8N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 13.6N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 14.4N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 15.3N 49.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 08/0000Z 16.2N 52.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 17.3N 54.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 19.4N 59.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 10/1200Z 21.5N 63.5W 120 KT 140 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
