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| #1151565 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 06.Sep.2023) TCDAT3 Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2023 Lee has continued to quickly organize today. Convective banding, especially over the eastern semicircle of the storm, has increased since this morning. The center is embedded within a small central dense overcast, and earlier this afternoon there was a hint of a ragged eye in visible imagery. Although subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB were still T3.5 (55 kt) and most of the objective estimate are slightly below hurricane strength, the initial intensity has been increased to 65 kt based on the continued improvement in organization this afternoon, and the presence of a mid-level eye in a recent SSMIS microwave overpass. Lee becomes the fourth hurricane of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Recent satellite fixes suggest that Lee took a northwestward jog this afternoon, however the longer-term motion is still west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the north of Lee should continue to steer the cyclone on a west-northwestward heading through the weekend. Near the end of the forecast period, Lee will be approaching the western periphery of the ridge and the forward motion of the cyclone is likely to slow at that time. The dynamical model guidance continues to indicate that the core of Lee will pass to the north of the northern Leeward Islands, however interests in those islands should continue to monitor the latest forecasts as the typical three-day NHC track error is about 90 n mi. The NHC track forecast is again along the southern side of the guidance envelope, between the faster and farther south HFIP corrected consensus model, and the TVCA multi-model consensus aid. The updated track foreast is slightly north of the previous advisory primarily due to the more northward initial position, and it is a little slower than the previous forecast to be closer to the latest consensus aids. The light to moderate east-northeasterly shear over Lee is forecast to decrease overnight, and that along with warm SSTs and a moist atmosphere along the forecast track should allow for additional intensification. With the small inner core seen in microwave imagery and favorable environmental conditions, a period of rapid strengthening is a distinct possibility within the next day or two. Although the exact timing of any rapid strengthening is tricky to anticipate, the official forecast calls for a substantial 65-kt increase in strength during the next 72 hours. This is similar to the previous forecast, and is near the upper end of the intensity guidance. By later in the weekend, hard-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Lee is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Saturday and could bring impacts to the northern Leeward Islands this weekend. While it is too soon to determine the location and magnitude of these possible impacts, interests in this area should monitor the progress of Lee and further updates to the forecast. 2. Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.9N 46.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.6N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.5N 50.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.5N 53.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 18.6N 55.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 19.6N 57.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 20.4N 59.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 21.9N 62.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 23.0N 65.2W 125 KT 145 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
